According to the generational theory of William Strauss and Neil Howe, within the next ten years the Anglo-American world should be moving out of its current Crisis into what they call a High. This will be a calmer, more optimistic time akin to the 1950s and 1960s, when society pulls together. The aggressive ‘woke’ style of discourse will fade away as the ideals of fairness and inclusion are accepted as settled. References: ‘Generations: The History of America’s Future, 1584 to 2069’ by William Strauss and Neil Howe (1991); and ‘The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous with Destiny’ by Neil Howe and William Strauss (1996).
@Teekey90 – Thank you for this in-depth and methodically deconstructed and, I’d say, improved upon understanding of the generational theory. Truly, this is an immense feat.
As an aside, Howe has stated several times in interviews that he and Strauss pin the likely beginning of the 4th Turning as the great financial crisis of 08′. This means that we enter the high in 2030, give or take a few years. Most likely we are still on the way up to the peak of this cycle’s crisis and that’s why society and politics continue to feel like they are accelerating toward disaster.
Wow! Fantastic discourse on Strauss & Howe theory ending with an excellent explanation of wokeism. I especially liked the harmonic oscillator explanation of how social moods change.
@doh917
1. This Fourth Turning could mark the end of man. It could be an omnicidal Armageddon, destroying everything, leaving nothing. If mankind ever extinguishes itself, this will probably happen when its dominant civilization triggers a Fourth Turning that ends horribly. For this Fourth Turning to put an end to all this would require an extremely unlikely blend of social disaster, human malevolence, technological perfection, and bad luck.2. The Fourth Turning could mark the end of modernity. The Western saecular rhythm – which began in the mid-fifteenth century with the Renaissance – could come to an abrupt terminus. The seventh modern saeculum would be the last. This too could come from total war, terrible but not final. There could be a complete collapse of science, culture, politics, and society. Such a dire result would probably happen only when a dominant nation (like today’s America) lets a Fourth Turning ekpyrosis engulf the planet. But this outcome is well within the reach of foreseeable technology and malevolence.
3. The Fourth Turning could spare modernity but mark the end of our nation. It could close the book on the political constitution, popular culture, and moral standing that the word America has come to signify. The nation has endured for three saecula; Rome lasted twelve, the Soviet Union only one. Fourth Turnings are critical thresholds for national survival. Each of the last three American Crises produced moments of extreme danger: In the Revolution, the very birth of the republic hung by a thread in more than one battle. In the Civil War, the union barely survived a four-year slaughter that in its own time was regarded as the most lethal war in history. In World War II, the nation destroyed an enemy of democracy that for a time was winning; had the enemy won, America might have itself been destroyed. In all likelihood, the next Crisis will present the nation with a threat and a consequence on a similar scale.
4. Or the Fourth Turning could simply mark the end of the Millennial Saeculum. Mankind, modernity, and America would all persevere. Afterward, there would be a new mood, a new High, and a new saeculum. America would be reborn. But, reborn, it would not be the same.
The greatest part of optimists is often their biggest weakness. By assuming that history is linear and the arc of history bends towards justice they often overlook that history is not linear because we forget how long and how horrible times in history have lasted. Optimism is vulnerable to carelessness and neglect especially in a time where care and focus are the most required. People assume the good guys always win because why wouldn’t they. That isn’t always the case and it never has been. Nero burned down Rome. If you were the Mayans or the Native Americans, life was pretty normal or at least predictable everyday until one day it wasn’t and after that day you and your entire network of people were never the same again either from conquest or disease. Looking forward to the inevitable High while not being concerned with what’s coming over the immediate horizon is a cope when coping is not what people should be focusing on right now.
