HKU Estimates 44,000 Infected With Novel Coronavirus In Wuhan Alone

The Dean of @hkumed , Prof @gmleunghku , said his team has estimated that as of Saturday, some 44,000 people in #Wuhan alone were likely to have been infected by the new virus. #coronarvirus #WuhanCoronavirus https://t.co/ppFlM1lakM

— HKU Medicine (@hkumed) January 27, 2020

While the `official‘ number of infected cases is just over 2800, overnight the Dean of Hong Kong University Medical School – Professor Gabriel Leung – held a press conference where he estimated the actual number of cases to be 44,000 in Wuhan City alone.

A link, and a small excerpt from the English Language coverage by RTHK News.

Tens of thousands likely infected now: HKU experts 

2020-01-27 HKT 16:09

Medical experts from the University of Hong Kong warned on Monday that governments should implement “draconian measures” to limit the spread of the new Wuhan virus, saying the number of cases is likely to be far higher than reported.

The dean of the university’s medical school, Gabriel Leung, said his team has estimated that as of Saturday, some 44,000 people in Wuhan alone were likely to have been infected by the new virus.

Around 25,000 of these were likely to be sick, with the others only in the incubation stage and not yet showing symptoms.

With the estimated infection figure drastically higher than the mainland’s latest official tally of 2,744 confirmed cases – and infections now reported in around a dozen countries – the HKU experts said a global epidemic could be imminent.

(Continue . . .) 

While these are estimates, the team at HKU are among the best in the world, have a long history of dealing with outbreaks inside China, and are arguably in the best position geographically – and politically – to be able to analyze and openly discuss what’s happening on the Mainland.

They warn that the number of cases has likely doubled every 6 days, and that this epidemic may not peak until April or May.

Stay tuned.